A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
